Estimation to Current and Future Potential Distribution Areas of Pityogenes calcaratus (Eichhoff) in Turkish Forests
[1]
Oguzhan Sarikaya, Faculty of Forestry, Bursa Technical University, Bursa, Turkey.
[2]
Ismail Sen, Technology Faculty, Isparta University of Applied Sciences, Isparta, Turkey.
Climatic factors that are effective in the emergence of insect pests make the host plants less resistant by stressing or cause an increase in the reproductive potential and population of pest species. Pityogenes calcaratus (Eichhoff) (Col.: Curculionidae, Scolytinae) which is a bark beetle species, expands its distribution in pine forests recent years and also cause damages. The study aims to model the current and future (2050 and 2070) distribution areas of P. calcaratus according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 emission scenarios. Current and future potential distribution areas of the species were predicted by using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) method. Finally, change analysis was performed to reveal the distributional changes between the present and future distribution ranges of the species. At the end of the study, it is understood that the most effective bioclimatic factors on the distribution of the species are Isothermality, temperature seasonality, Min Temperature of Coldest Month and Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter. Model results showed that the current and future (2050 and 2070) distributions of P. calcaratus in Turkey were modelled according to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 (Representational Concentration Pathways) climate change scenarios. It is noteworthy that the current potential distribution area of the species largely overlaps with the areas where the Brutian pine distributed, especially in the western and southern parts of Turkey. In addition, when the distribution model is examined in the projections of 2050-2070 according to RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, it is seen that the species tends to spread to the areas where other pine species are also found and throughout the northern part and the Black Sea Region and emerges as a threat to pine forests.
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