Welcome to Open Science
Contact Us
Home Books Journals Submission Open Science Join Us News
Climate Change Impacts and Agriculture: Empirical Evidence from Zarafshan River Basin, Uzbekistan
Current Issue
Volume 9, 2021
Issue 1 (March)
Pages: 1-8   |   Vol. 9, No. 1, March 2021   |   Follow on         
Paper in PDF Downloads: 34   Since Mar. 4, 2021 Views: 427   Since Mar. 4, 2021
Authors
[1]
Babakholov Sherzod, “International Agricultural Economics Chair”, Tashkent State Agrarian University (TSAU), Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
Abstract
Climate change is becoming one of most disruptive phenomena for the agriculture of Central Asian countries, particularly for the predominantly rural communities. Nonetheless, the consequences of climate changes are still remaining uncertain and aridity is going to increase further in arid zones of the region, like in Uzbekistan. Agriculture as being an important sector for national economy is highly vulnerable to climate shocks and predicted future climate consequences may pose severe challenges to the resilience of Uzbek agricultural system, especially in terms of food security and income stability of rural producers. In this context, by aggregating both climatic and agricultural data we proposed to review the climate projections through agricultural transition and to analyze the impact of climate change (temperature and rainfall) on wheat yield for the first time in three regions of Uzbekistan, where irrigated agriculture has developed in Zarafshan River Basin. In this study district level panel data employed and analysis was implemented using Fixed effect model. Empirical findings revealed that, annual temperature has positive influence on wheat yield in short run. However, wheat farmers may suffer in distant future from increased temperature on their production. The annual precipitation amount has positive relation with production. In terms of seasonality changes, increase in temperature was found to have significant negative impact in all seasons. Contrary, precipitation has significant positive influence in all seasons except summer in the regions of Zarafshan River Basin.
Keywords
Climate Change, Agricultural Transition, Wheat Yield, Zarafshan River Basin
Reference
[1]
Kurukulasuriya P, Rosenthal S (2003) Climate change and agriculture. World Bank Environment Department Paper # 91, Washington, D.C.
[2]
IPCC (2014) Synthesis report. contribution of working groups i, ii and iii to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. In: (Pachauri RK, Meyer, LA, et al. (ed)) IPCC, Geneva, Switzerland, 151pp.
[3]
Ali, A., & Erenstein, O. (2017). Assessing farmer use of climate change adaptation practices and impacts on food security and poverty in Pakistan. Climate Risk Management, 16, 183-194.
[4]
Maskrey, A., Buescher, G., Peduzzi, P., & Schaerpf, C. (2007). Disaster risk reduction: 2007 global review. Consultation edition. Prepared for the global platform for disaster risk reduction first session, Geneva, Switzerland, 5-7.
[5]
Easterling DR, Meehl GA, Parmesan C, Changnon SA, Karl TR, Mearns LO (2000) Climate extremes: observations, modelling, and impacts. Science 289 (5487): 2068-2074.
[6]
Lobell DB, Burke MB, Tebaldi C, Mastrandrea MD, Falcon WP, Naylor RL (2008) Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science 319 (5863): 607-610.
[7]
World Bank, (2018 and 2019). World Development Indicators. The World Bank, Washington D.C, USA.
[8]
Lioubimtseva E, Henebry GM (2009), “Climate and Environmental change in arid Central Asia: impacts, vulnerability, and adaptations” Journal of Arid Environment 73: 963-977.
[9]
Gupta, R., K. Kienzler, C. Martius, A. Mirzabaev, T. Oweis, E. De Pauw, M. Qadir, K. Shideed, R. Sommer, R. Thomas, K. Sayre, C. Carli, A. Saparov, M. Bekenov, S. Sanginov, M. Nepesov, and R. Ikramov (2009). Research prospects: A vision for sustainably land management in Central Asia. ICARDA Central Asia and Caucasus Program. Sustainably agriculture in Central Asia and Caucasus Series No. 1. CGIAR-PFU, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
[10]
Bernauer T., Siegfried T. (2012): Climate change and international water conflict in Central Asia. Journal of Peace Research, 49 (1): 227-239.
[11]
Mirzabaev, A., (2013). Impact of weather variability and climate change on agricultural revenues in Central Asia. Quart. J. Int. Agric. 3, 179–194.
[12]
IPCC et al. (2007). Climate change 2007: Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
[13]
Christopher, P. O Reyer, Ilona M. Otto, Sophie Adams, Torsten Albrecht, Florent Baarsch, Matti Cartsburg, Dim Coumou, Alexnder Eden, Eva Ludi, Rachel Marcus, Matthias Mengel, Beatrice Mosello, Alexander Robinson, Carl-Friedrich Schleussner, Olivia Serdeczny, Judith Stagl (2015). Climate change impacts in Central Asia and their implications for development. Reg. Environ. Change 17: 1639-1650.
[14]
IFPRI report, (2009). “Climate Change impact on agriculture and cost of adaptation” Washington, D.C.
[15]
Ahmed S. A. N. Diffenbaugh and Thomas W Hertel (2009). Climate volatility deepens poverty vulnerability in developing countries. Environmental research letters. IOP publishing Ltd. Volume 4.
[16]
Von Braun, J. (2008). Food and financial crises: Implications for agriculture and the poor (Vol. 20). Intl Food Policy Res Inst.
[17]
FAO, FAOSTAT (2008). Food and agriculture organization of the United Nations. Retrieved on, 15.
[18]
Nelson, R., Kokic, P., Crimp, S., Martin, P., Meinke, H., Howden, S. M.,... & Nidumolu, U. (2010). The vulnerability of Australian rural communities to climate variability and change: Part II—Integrating impacts with adaptive capacity. Environmental Science & Policy, 13 (1), 18-27.
[19]
Parry, M., Canziani, O., Palutikof, J., van der Linden, P. and C. Hanson (eds.), (2007). Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.
[20]
Sommer, R., Glazirina, M., Yuldashev, T., Otarov, A., Ibraeva, M., Martynova, L., Bekenov, M., Kholov, B., Ibragimov, N., Kobilov, R., Karaev, S., Sultonov, M., Khasanova, F., Esanbekov, M., Mavlyanov, D., Isaev, S., Abdurahimov, S., Ikramov, R., Shezdyukova, L., de Pauw, E., (2013). Impact of climate change on wheat pro-ductivity in Central Asia. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 178, 78–99.
[21]
FAO Aquastat UZB (2014). Map of water sources and irrigation in Uzbekistan http://www.fao.org/nr/water/aquastat/countries_regions/UZB/UZB-map_detailed.pdf.
[22]
Pomfret, R., (2007). Distortions to Agricultural Incentives in Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Agricultural Distortions Working Paper. World Bank, Washing-ton, DC, pp. 52.
[23]
Spoor, M., (2007). Ten Propositions on Rural Poverty and Agrarian Transition in Central Asia IBEI Working Papers. Barcelona Institute of International Studies, Barcelona.
[24]
Babakholov Sh., Kim K. R., Lee S. H. (2018). “Agricultural Transition and Technical Efficiency: An Empirical Analysis of Wheat-Cultivating Farms in Samarkand Region, Uzbekistan” Sustainability 2018, 10, 3232; MDPI - Academic Open Access Publishing. www.mdpi.com/journal/sustainability
[25]
Lerman, Z. (2008). Agricultural development in Uzbekistan: The effect of ongoing reforms. The Hebrew University of Jerusalem Discussion Paper, 7.
[26]
Kienzler K. M, et al. (2011). An agronomic, economic and behavioral analysis of application to cotton and wheat in post-Soviet Uzbekistan. Agricultural Systems, 411-418.
[27]
SCRUz, (2019). The State Committee of the Republic of Uzbekistan on Statistics.
[28]
World Bank, (2009). Adapting to Climate Change in Europe and Central Asia. World Bank, Washington, DC.
[29]
Bobojonov I. et al. (2014). “Impacts of climate change on farm income security in Central Asia: An integrated modelling approach” Agriculture, Ecosystems and Environment 188 (2014) 245–255.
[30]
United Nations Environmental Programme (UNEP). Environment and Security in the Amu Darya Basin, report prepared on behalf of the partner organizations of the Environment and Security Initiative, 2011.
[31]
Bucknall, J., Klytchnikova, I., Lampietti, J., Lundell, M., Scatasta, M., Thurman, M., (2003). Irrigation in Central Asia. Social, Economic and Environmental Considerations. The World Bank http://siteresources.worldbank.org/ECAEXT/Resources/publications/Irrigation-in-Central-Asia/Irrigation in Central Asia-Full Document-English.pdf.
[32]
CAREC, (2011). Gap Analysis on Adaptation to Climate Change in Central Asia. Priorities, Recommendations, Practices. Regional Environmental Centre for Central Asia, Almaty.
[33]
Franz, J., I. Bobojonov, and O. Egamberdiev. 2010. Assessing the economic viability of organic cotton production in Uzbekistan: A first look. Journal of Sustainable Agriculture 34 (1): 99-119.
[34]
Aleksandrova, M. (2015). Water scarcity under climate change: Impacts, vulnerability and risk reduction in the agricultural regions of Central Asia.
[35]
Khujanazarov T., Ichikawa Y., Abdullaev I., Toderich K. (2012): Water quality monitoring and geospatial data base coupled with hydrological data of Zeravshan River Basin. Journal of Arid Land Studies, 22 (1): 199-202.
[36]
Kulmatov, R., Opp, C., Groll, M., & Kulmatova, D. (2013). Assessment of water quality of the trans-boundary Zarafshan River in the territory of Uzbekistan.
[37]
MWR (2019), Ministry of Water Resources of the Republic of Uzbekistan, Tashkent, Uzbekistan.
[38]
UNDP Report, “Technical Report on the Zarafshan River Basin,” UNDP, Tashkent, 2007.
[39]
Lobell DB, Schlenker W, Costa-Roberts J (2011) Climate trends and global crop production since 1980. Science 333 (6042): 616-620.
[40]
Cline, W. R. (2007). Global warming and agriculture: impact estimates by country. Center for Global Development: Peterson Institute for International Economics. Washington, D.C.
[41]
Mendelsohn, R. and Seo, N, (2007). Changing Farm Types and Irrigation as an Adaptation to Climate Change in Latin American Agriculture, Policy Research Working Paper 4161, World Bank.
[42]
Jones, J. W., Hoogenboom, G., Porter, C. H., Boote, K. J., Batchelor, W. D., Hunt, L. A., Wilkens, P. W., Singh, U., Gijsman, A. J., Ritchie, J. T., 2003. The DSSAT cropping system model. European Journal of Agronomy 18, 235–265.
[43]
Schönhart, M., Schauppenlehner, T., Schmid, E., Muhar, A., 2011. Integration of bio-physical and economic models to analyze management intensity and landscape structure effects at farm and landscape level. Agric. Syst. 104, 122–134.
[44]
Janssen, S., van Ittersum, M. K., (2007). Assessing farm innovations and responses to policies: a review of bio-economic farm models. Agric. Syst. 94, 622–636.
[45]
Delden, H., van Vliet, J., Rutledge, D. T., Kirkby, M. J., (2011). Comparison of scale and scaling issues in integrated land-use models for policy support. Agric. Ecosyst. Environ. 142, 18–28.
[46]
Thornton, P. K., (2006). Ex ante impact assessment and seasonal climate forecasts: status and issues. Clim. Res. 33, 55–65.
[47]
Cabas, J., Weersink, A., and Olale, E., (2010). Crop yield response to economic, site and climatic variables. Climatic Change, 101 (3-4), 599-616. doi: 10.1007/s10584-009-9754-4.
[48]
You, L., Rosegrant, M. W., Wood, S., & Sun, D. (2009). Impact of growing season temperature on wheat productivity in China. Agricultural and Forest Meteorology, 149 (6–7), 1009-1014. doi: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2008.12.004.
[49]
Bell, Andrew, and Kelvyn Jones (2015). “Explaining Fixed effects: Random effects modelling of time-series cross-sectional and panel data." Political Science Research and Methods 3 (1): 133-153.
[50]
Williams, R., Allison, P. D., & Moral-Benito, E. (2018). Linear dynamic panel-data estimation using maximum likelihood and structural equation modeling. The Stata Journal, 18 (2), 293-326.
[51]
Deschenes, O. and M. Greenstone (2007). “The economic impacts of climate change: Evidence from agricultural output and random fluctuations in weather”. In: American economic review 97 (1): 354-385.
[52]
Greene, W. (2008). Functional forms for the negative binomial model for count data. Economics Letters, 99 (3), 585-590.
[53]
Wooldridge J. (2002). “Econometric analysis of cross section and panel data” MIT Press, Cambridge, MA.
[54]
Hazratkulova S. et al., (2012). “Analysis of genotypic variation for normalized difference vegetation index and its relationship with grain yield in winter wheat under terminal heat stress”. doi: 10.1111/pbr.12003 Plant Breeding 127, 264–268.
Open Science Scholarly Journals
Open Science is a peer-reviewed platform, the journals of which cover a wide range of academic disciplines and serve the world's research and scholarly communities. Upon acceptance, Open Science Journals will be immediately and permanently free for everyone to read and download.
CONTACT US
Office Address:
228 Park Ave., S#45956, New York, NY 10003
Phone: +(001)(347)535 0661
E-mail:
LET'S GET IN TOUCH
Name
E-mail
Subject
Message
SEND MASSAGE
Copyright © 2013-, Open Science Publishers - All Rights Reserved