The Determinants of Money Supply in Sudan: Empirical Assessment Based on an Application of the (ARDL) Model (1980-2016)
The objective of the study is to examine the empirical evidence of the existence of a long-run and short-run relationship between money supply and it is determinants (GDP growth, exchange rate, domestic investment, inflation rate, exports, cost of finance, foreign direct investment and government spending) in Sudan. The method has been employed to annual time series data covering the period (1980-2016), which are collected from the Central Bank of Sudan and Central Bureau of Statistics. This method is Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach associated error correction method (ECM) using Eviews package Version 10. The results indicate that real GDP and real government spending have positive and statistically significant effects on real money supply in the long run and short run, while real exports have negative and statistically significant effects on real money supply just in the long run. As well asexchange rate, real domestic investment, inflation, and foreign direct investment have positive and statistically insignificant effects on real money supply in the long run and short run. While the cost of finance has negative and statistically insignificant effects on real money supply in the long run and short run. Since real GDP, government spending and exports are found to be key determinants of money supply in Sudan. The results showed that the adjustment coefficient (EC-1) with a negative sign and statistically significant, these findings indicate that the presence of an error correction mechanism works in this form. The coefficients of EC-1 are equal to (-0.99) and imply that deviation from the long-term real money supply is corrected by only 99% percent in the model. The study recommended thatthe government should employ a suitable monetary policy so as to encourage financial integration with all sectors of the economy that will enhance positive outcome to the country.
Moneysupply, Domestic Investment, Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL)
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