Analysis of Factors Influencing Agricultural Output in Nigeria: Macro-economics Perspectives
This research is on the Analysis of factors influencing Agricultural output in Nigeria:Macro-economic perspectives. The study seeks to determine the factors influencing agricultural production in Nigeria; determine the causality between Agricultural outputs and macro economic variables and to proffer recommendations based on research findings.The study adopts regression analysis, descriptive statistics and the Granger causality tests on macro economic variables (i.e. Food import value, Interest rate, Commercial bank loans on Agriculture, GDP growth rate and Foreign direct investment) to find the significant relationship between the different variables chosen.The result shows fluctuations in the trend of variables considered (i.e. Interest rate, Commercial bank loans on Agriculture, GDP growth rate and Foreign direct investment) in relation to the period under review. The result shows that 95% of the variations in the dependent variable were explained by the explanatory variables i.e. (FOOD, IRATE, LOAN, GDP, and FDI). The result further shows that foreign direct investment; commercial bank loan, interest rate and food import value have positive relationship with Agricultural output (y), while GDP surprisingly had a negative impact on dependent variable.The result of Granger causality test also shows that FOOD Granger cause AGRIC at 10% level of significance, AGRIC Granger cause LOAN at 5% level of significance, GDP Granger cause AGRIC at 5% level of significance, FOOD Granger cause LOAN at 1% level of significance, FOOD Granger cause GDP at 10% level of significance, FDI Granger cause FOOD at 5% level of significance. The results concluded that food import, Interest rate, commercial loan and foreign direct investment were factors that contributed to Agricultural output in Nigeria.
Agricultural Output, Macro-Economic Variables, GDP, Descriptive Statistics and Regression Analysis.JEL Codes:N57, Q18, B22, C01, C32
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